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A. V. Eliseev I. I. Mokhov A. A. Karpenko 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2007,43(5):544-554
The climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is extended by a block for the direct anthropogenic sulfate-aerosol (SA) radiative forcing. Numerical experiments have been performed with prescribed scenarios of the greenhouse and anthropogenic sulfate radiative forcings from observational estimates for the 19th and 20th centuries and from SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 for the 21st century. The globally averaged direct anthropogenic SA radiative forcing F ASA by the end of the 20th century relative to the preindustrial state is ?0.34 W/m2, lying within the uncertainty range of the corresponding present-day estimates. The absolute value of F ASA is the largest in Europe, North America, and southeastern Asia. A general increase in direct radiative forcing in the numerical experiments that have been performed continues until the mid-21st century. With both the greenhouse and the sulfate loadings included, the global climate warming in the model is 1.5–2.8 K by the end of the 21st century relative to the late 20th century, depending on the scenario, and 2.1–3.4 K relative to the preindustrial period. The sulfate aerosol reduces global warming by 0.1–0.4 K in different periods depending on the scenario. The largest slowdown (>1.5 K) occurs over land at middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in the mid-21st century for scenario A2. The IAP RAS CM response to the greenhouse and the aerosol forcing is not additive. 相似文献
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The applications of the tools of nonlinear time-series analysis to measurements obtained by digital ionosonde PARUS, created at IZMIRAN, is considered. Small-scale structure of the electron density Ne at F-region of ionosphere is examined by exploring observables of reflected high-frequency radio wave.Time series corresponding to given transmitter frequency f and virtual height h and conforming to usual, not perturbed, day ionogram are examined. Using the standard correlation algorithm, we have determined that for an embedding dimension n = 15, computed correlation dimension D2(n) reaches its saturation, D2 4.Reliability of the estimation of the correlation dimension was confirmed by applying to our sets of measurements J. Theiler's modification of standard algorithm. The test of time difference, smoothing procedure, calculation of the largest Liapounov exponent, and analysis of the surrogate data were employed in our study of data sets. Although our sets of measurements contain a significant random noise, nonlinear time-series analysis clear up, that the dynamics of unperturbed ionosphere, generating this time series, exhibits low-dimensional behavior. 相似文献
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Guram S. Zakariadze Yildirim Dilek S.A. Adamia R.E. Oberhnsli S.F. Karpenko B.A. Bazylev N. Solov'eva 《Gondwana Research》2007,11(1-2):92
The Transcaucasian Massif (TCM) in the Republic of Georgia includes Neoproterozoic–Early Cambrian ophiolites and magmatic arc assemblages that are reminiscent of the coeval island arc terranes in the Arabian–Nubian Shield (ANS) and provides essential evidence for Pan-African crustal evolution in Western Gondwana. The metabasite–plagiogneiss–migmatite association in the Oldest Basement Unit (OBU) of TCM represents a Neoproterozoic oceanic lithosphere intruded by gabbro–diorite–quartz diorite plutons of the Gray Granite Basement Complex (GGBC) that constitute the plutonic foundation of an island arc terrane. The Tectonic Mélange Zone (TMZ) within the Middle-Late Carboniferous Microcline Granite Basement Complex includes thrust sheets composed of various lithologies derived from this arc-ophiolite assemblage. The serpentinized peridotites in the OBU and the TMZ have geochemical features and primary spinel composition (0.35) typical of mid-ocean ridge (MOR)-type, cpx-bearing spinel harzburgites. The metabasic rocks from these two tectonic units are characterized by low-K, moderate-to high-Ti, olivine-hypersthene-normative, tholeiitic basalts representing N-MORB to transitional to E-MORB series. The analyzed peridotites and volcanic rocks display a typical melt-residua genetic relationship of MOR-type oceanic lithosphere. The whole-rock Sm–Nd isotopic data from these metabasic rocks define a regression line corresponding to a maximum age limit of 804 ± 100 Ma and εNdint = 7.37 ± 0.55. Mafic to intermediate plutonic rocks of GGBC show tholeiitic to calc-alkaline evolutionary trends with LILE and LREE enrichment patterns, Y and HREE depletion, and moderately negative anomalies of Ta, Nb, and Ti, characteristic of suprasubduction zone originated magmas. U–Pb zircon dates, Rb–Sr whole-rock isochron, and Sm–Nd mineral isochron ages of these plutonic rocks range between 750 Ma and 540 Ma, constraining the timing of island arc construction as the Neoproterozoic–Early Cambrian. The Nd and Sr isotopic ratios and the model and emplacement ages of massive quartz diorites in GGBC suggest that pre-Pan African continental crust was involved in the evolution of the island arc terrane. This in turn indicates that the ANS may not be made entirely of juvenile continental crust of Neoproterozoic age. Following its separation from ANS in the Early Paleozoic, TCM underwent a period of extensive crustal growth during 330–280 Ma through the emplacement of microcline granite plutons as part of a magmatic arc system above a Paleo-Tethyan subduction zone dipping beneath the southern margin of Eurasia. TCM and other peri-Gondwanan terranes exposed in a series of basement culminations within the Alpine orogenic belt provide essential information on the Pan-African history of Gondwana and the rift-drift stages of the tectonic evolution of Paleo-Tethys as a back-arc basin between Gondwana and Eurasia. 相似文献
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Isometric in plan, near-vertical earthquake clusters (seismic “nails”) were identified in different regions of the world. Seismic nails are 10–90 km in vertical length; most earthquakes that make them up are weak and their formation time is 10–60 days. Some nails are related to strong earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Many seismic nails are not evidently related to fault zones and other tectonic structures. The Hurst exponent (H > 0.5) indicates the persistency in the sequence of earthquake depths. 相似文献
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L. V. Tverskaya S. V. Balashov N. N. Vedenkin V. V. Ivanov T. A. Ivanova D. S. Karpenko S. G. Kochura I. A. Maksimov N. N. Pavlov I. A. Rubinstein M. V. Tel’tsov D. A. Trofimchuk V. I. Tulupov V. V. Khartov 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2008,48(6):719-726
Increases in solar protons and variations in the electron and proton fluxes from the outer radiation belt are studied based on the GLONASS satellite measurements (the circular orbit at an altitude of ～20000 km with an inclination of ～65°) performed in December 2006. Indications in the channels, registered protons with energies of Ep = 3–70 MeV and electrons with energies of Ee > 0.04 and >0.8 MeV, are analyzed. The data on electrons with Ee = 0.8–1.2 MeV, measured on the Express-A3 geostationary satellite, are also presented. Before the strong magnetic storm of December 14 (|Dst|max = 146 nT), the maximum of the outer belt electrons with the energy >0.7 MeV was observed at L ～ 4.5. After the storm, the fluxes of these electrons increased by more than an order of magnitude as compared to the prestorm level, and the maximum of a “new” belt shifted to L < 4 (minimal L reached by the GLONASS orbit). Under quiet geomagnetic conditions, solar protons with the energies >3 MeV fill only high-latitude legs of the GLONASS orbit. During the strong magnetic storm of December 15, the boundary of proton penetration into the magnetosphere almost merged with the orbital maximum of the proton radiation belt. 相似文献
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The developmental history of peatland and dry land vegetation within the Ob-Vasugan watershed of Western Siberia was characterized according to features of the plant communities and climatic changes which were revealed by stratigraphic, spore-pollen and C14 (carbon) data obtained from a vertical peat profile Vodorasdel. Changes in the paleoecological environment over the last 10000 years were divided into five periods. The climate was characterized in the Holocene according to these periods. At the watershed studied, peatland-forming processes started about 9510 years ago resulting in 550 cm of peat accumulation. The rate of peat accumulation within the watershed decreased over time from 1.9–0.3 mm year– 1. 相似文献